The global pharmaceutical market is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the growing sales of GLP-1 receptor agonists, medications designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity. Companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk stand out in this scenario, showing growth rates that starkly contrast with the overall performance of the sector. The impact of this phenomenon extends beyond these companies' revenues and could redefine investment strategies, innovation, and drug accessibility in the coming years.
This article explores the implications of the rise of GLP-1 drugs, the challenges they present, and the opportunities for Brazil and Latin America.
According to recent projections, the global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2025. However, without the contribution of Lilly and Novo Nordisk, that growth would drop to 3.7%—a clear indication of the disproportionate impact that GLP-1 drugs are having on the industry.
Both companies are at the center of a revolution in the treatment of metabolic diseases. Their obesity and diabetes products, such as Zepbound (Lilly) and Wegovy (Novo Nordisk), are experiencing unprecedented demand, surpassing market expectations. To illustrate the scale of this movement, GLP-1 drugs are expected to generate $131 billion globally by 2028.
Furthermore, projections indicate that the combined market share of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in the pharmaceutical sector will rise from 15% to 19% by 2029. These companies are shaping the future of the industry and forcing other pharmaceutical firms to rethink their strategies.
The rapid growth of GLP-1 drugs represents a paradigm shift. Until now, pharmaceutical innovation was broadly spread across different therapeutic areas. Now, a specific drug class is capturing a significant portion of investment and industry attention, leading to several consequences:
Strategic Adjustments in R&D – Competitors such as Pfizer and AbbVie are already heavily investing in their own obesity treatments, but it will take years for a direct competitor to challenge Lilly and Novo Nordisk's leadership.
New Pricing and Access Models – The growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs raises concerns about access to high-cost treatments, especially in emerging markets.
Financial Market Valuation – The success of these companies is driving their stock prices higher and increasing investor interest in the biopharmaceutical sector.
Additionally, the impact of GLP-1 drugs is not limited to the pharmaceutical sector. These medications are expected to affect the processed food market and even the fitness industry, as changes in eating behavior caused by their use may reduce the consumption of certain products and services.
The expanding GLP-1 market raises a crucial question: how can emerging countries position themselves in this revolution? In Brazil, where approximately 22% of the adult population is obese and 10% has diabetes, the introduction of these drugs represents an opportunity to transform public health. However, significant challenges need to be addressed:
Access and Cost – The high cost of these medications remains a barrier in Brazil. Without policies encouraging local production or partnerships to reduce costs, access may be restricted to a small group of patients.
National Production Capacity – Brazil has a robust pharmaceutical industry, but has yet to develop domestic alternatives to GLP-1 drugs. The key question is: Can the country enter this market, or will it remain merely a passive consumer of foreign innovation?
Regulation and Integration into the Public Health System (SUS) – For these medications to have a broad population impact, it will be essential to discuss their incorporation into the public health system, a process that requires cost-benefit analysis and negotiations with manufacturers.
If well-planned, public policies and incentives for local production could make Brazil a strategic hub for distributing GLP-1-based treatments in Latin America.
The rise of GLP-1 drugs is a reflection of how pharmaceutical innovation can reshape an entire industry. Companies that can anticipate trends and align their strategies with market demand will gain a significant competitive advantage.
For Brazil, this movement represents both a wake-up call and an opportunity. If the country invests in research, production, and access policies, it could become a key player in this new era of healthcare. Otherwise, Brazil will remain reliant on importing these treatments, limiting their impact on public health and the economy.
At IBIS, we closely monitor these transformations and work to connect startups and researchers with innovation opportunities in the healthcare sector. The GLP-1 revolution is just beginning – and the decisions made today will define our role in this global scenario.
by Marcio de Paula
Brazilian Health Innovation Institute - IBIS
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